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Hello reader,

Trump has won, against Indonesia, at least. Trump has coerced Indonesia into accepting deals that would eventually reverse his country’s trade deficit, which appears to be the goal of his global trade tariff threats.

Here, one may celebrate the lowering of import tariffs on Indonesian goods as a victory. However, some experts have expressed concerns over the bigger picture. Read on for more.

Cheers,

Andra

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Law/Politics

• The Attorney General’s Office (AGO) has named four suspects in a IDR 1.98 trillion corruption case involving the procurement of Google-based Chromebook laptops by the Ministry of Education between 2019 and 2022. In addition to ministry officials Sri Wahyuningsih and Mulyatsyah, two others implicated in the scandal are former Bukalapak VP Ibrahim Arief, who served as a tech consultant to the ministry, and Jurist Tan, a former special staff to then-Education Minister Nadiem Makarim. The suspects allegedly steered the procurement to favor Chrome OS, despite lacking the authority to do so, with evidence pointing to early involvement from Nadiem himself. Prosecutors say the laptops, heavily reliant on internet access, proved ineffective in remote areas. While Nadiem’s name appears in testimonies, he has not been named a suspect due to insufficient evidence. Investigators are also probing a potential link between the Chromebook deal and Google’s investment in Gojek, the company Nadiem co-founded.

• Former President Joko Widodo has expressed suspicion that recent controversies—such as allegations of a fake diploma and calls to impeach Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, his eldest son—are part of a larger political agenda aimed at damaging his reputation. Speaking from his home in Solo, Central Java, Jokowi told reporters he believes these issues are being used to politically "downgrade" him. While he acknowledged the intensity of the speculation, Jokowi said he is responding to it calmly and considers it a routine part of politics.

• The Indonesian Embassy in Tokyo has denied rumors that Japan will stop accepting Indonesian citizens starting in 2026. In an official statement, the embassy emphasized that bilateral relations between Indonesia and Japan, which have lasted 67 years, remain strong. The Japanese government has never issued such a policy, nor has it been discussed officially with Indonesia. The embassy urged all Indonesians in Japan to maintain harmony, follow local laws, and uphold the nation's good name, especially after concerns were raised by a viral video showing alleged misconduct by members of an Indonesian martial arts group. As of December 2024, nearly 200,000 Indonesians reside in Japan, mostly as workers and students. Despite isolated criminal incidents, the embassy confirmed there is no blacklist plan in place and encouraged continued cooperation between both nations.

• Lisa Mariana, with whom former West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil allegedly had an affair, has confirmed that she featured in a viral pornographic video with another man, following a five-hour interrogation by the West Java Police's cybercrime unit yesterday. Accompanied by her lawyer, Lisa briefly addressed reporters, admitting the video's authenticity but declined to elaborate further due to exhaustion. The West Java Police spokesperson confirmed that both Lisa and the male actor in the videos have acknowledged their roles. Lisa was previously reported to the police by the Indonesian Advocates Association, and authorities have secured three videos as evidence, all featuring the same individuals.

• A man identified as IM (50) has been arrested and named a suspect for allegedly molesting a fellow passenger on a Citilink flight from Denpasar to Jakarta on the night of July 14. The incident came to light when the victim, seated between her aunt and the suspect, cried out and went to the toilet, where she broke down in tears. Upon landing at Soekarno-Hatta Airport, IM was immediately detained by airport police. He is now facing charges under Indonesia’s sexual violence and child protection laws. 

Business/Economy

• US President Donald Trump announced a 19% import tariff on Indonesian goods while claiming that American products would enter Indonesia tariff-free, calling it a “great deal” giving the US unprecedented access to the Indonesian market. He praised President Prabowo Subianto, saying the agreement marked a new era in bilateral trade. As part of the deal, Indonesia reportedly agreed to purchase US$15 billion in American energy, US$4.5 billion in agricultural goods, and 50 Boeing planes. Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized the shift toward a more favorable trade balance for America. President Prabowo echoed Trump’s optimism, describing the deal as a mutually beneficial step forward. The new tariff replaces a previously announced 32% rate set to take effect August 1, following earlier tensions and negotiations initiated by Indonesia.

• While the government has hailed the new US–Indonesia trade deal a success, economists warn it could severely disadvantage Indonesia. Syafruddin Karimi criticized the agreement as structurally imbalanced, since Indonesian exports to the US still face tariffs, while US goods enter Indonesia tariff-free. This could flood the market with American products, hurt local industries—especially vulnerable sectors like agriculture and MSMEs—and weaken Indonesia’s trade position. Public policy expert Achmad Nur Hidayat likened the deal to economic coercion, arguing Indonesia had to agree to massive purchases from the US just to receive a still-high tariff rate. Both experts warned of deindustrialization, job losses, inflation, and pressure on the rupiah as risks tied to this uneven trade arrangement.

• The Directorate General of Taxes is planning to use AI to detect undeclared income through social media activity. An official said the AI system will be trained to recognize income-related anomalies by analyzing long-term patterns in users’ online behavior. This is part of a broader effort to expand the country’s tax base, especially amid fiscal pressures. The AI will supplement traditional tax reporting (like SPT) by comparing social media data with other sources to identify discrepancies. While the potential revenue impact is still under study, the Ministry of Finance has allocated IDR 1.99 trillion for the initiative in 2026, as part of a larger proposed budget of IDR 52.017 trillion.

• The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) has officially launched its Global Engagement Office (Kadin GEO) in Paris, France, marking a strategic step to boost Indonesia’s presence in international economic diplomacy. Timed with France’s Bastille Day on July 14, the launch aims to strengthen global business ties, particularly following the initial signing of the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA). The initiative has been welcomed by French business leaders, including Danone’s CEO and MEDEF, who highlighted Indonesia’s strategic role in Asia and expressed support for deeper bilateral collaboration. 

Everything Else

• Less than a month since Brazilian hiker Juliana Marins’ tragic death on Mount Rinjani, a Swiss hiker fell while trekking on the mountain, specifically on the Pelawangan Sembalun trail heading toward Segara Anak Lake, around noon today. The Mataram SAR Office classified the incident as a life-threatening condition and quickly dispatched a five-person rescue team. The hiker was successfully evacuated and is in stable condition, although he suffered a broken leg, according to officials.